I never really knew what a black swan event was because I never had to. The term barely existed in my vocabulary. It was something that I was vaguely familiar with, but never really concerned about. And yet here we are – in the middle of a black swan event. It is defined as a surprise, global event that has unpredictable and widespread consequences, and that is exactly what we are collectively going through with the Corona virus. Aviation is one of the hardest hit industries since it thrives on moving large numbers of people in confined spaces with high fixed and variable costs. When a black swan event like this occurs, utter chaos and devastation ensue. By the late Spring of 2020, there were over 14,000 commercial aircraft parked around the world and similar numbers of private aircraft, as well. In the meantime, we are all waiting for the day when we can fly again, but what will that look like? What is the path forward, particularly for private aviation?
Based upon the general sentiment from experts in our industry, here is what we can expect:
1. First to Rebound
While we are virtually grounded now, slowly the private will start to fly again. Passengers will feel more comfortable on a private aircraft than on commercial planes and therefore, private aviation will rebound first, gaining steam slowly but surely. Domestic flying will also recover first, versus international flying. Aircraft depend on many support industries to make them fly – FBOs, hotels, catering, and maintenance. All of these segments need to start operating again in order to support private aviation as it begins to fly again.
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